This is probably one of the most interesting and exciting line-ups at Alexandra Palace in years. Since 2011, the line-up has been fairly stagnant, let’s be honest. In the past five tournaments, there have only been twenty different players in the Top 16, including three debutants. Ronnie won three out of the last four tournaments. It’s only been in the last couple of years where we had new competitors, who were Liang Wenbo and Kyren Wilson. Yet this year’s line-up has many surprise omissions, two newcomers to the event and members of the old guard who seem to have come back from the dead.
Since Stuart Bingham’s ban a couple of months back, this has opened the doors for many players to take advantage of the extra space. The UK Championship invigorated the likes of Mark King, Stephen Maguire, and Ricky Walden to steal an unlikely place. Yet even Triple Crown winner Neil Robertson, who participated in every Masters edition since 2007, failed to make it. Instead, Liang Wenbo made it through the skin of his teeth and Ryan Day’s consistency has finally paid off to qualify for the first time since 2010.
What’s even better is that the younger generation that I keep blabbering on about finally have a chance to compete amongst the elite. Two-time ranking champion Anthony McGill and China Championship winner Luca Brecel join Kyren Wilson and Judd Trump as the only Under-30s in the Masters and it will be intriguing to find out what happens to them.
Of course, this is all digressing analysis. The main story is who can break Ronnie’s dominance? His fantastic record made that he has made Alexandra Palace his fortress. Even on his supposed D-game, the Rocket still manages still manages to blow every opponent away, except when he was outplayed by Robertson 6-1 in 2015. Let’s still if he can be broken!
Ronnie O’Sullivan (1) vs. Marco Fu (9)
Ronnie has had a very good season. Winning three ranking events, reaching the final of two non-ranking events and losing only six matches makes him the man to beat and what better place for him to prove his dominance in a place where he won the Paul Hunter Trophy seven times and came second place five times? To start off, he will play the highest seed he can possibly play in 2011 finalist Marco Fu. However, he has a very good H2H record with Fu – in 26 professional meetings, Ronnie as won 15, drew three times and lost 8 matches. In fact, the last time Marco actually beat The Rocket was the 2009 Welsh Open. So easy draw, right?
Fu may not be in decent nick this season, having not even reached the quarter-finals of a ranking event so far, but he was in brilliant form in Alexandra Palace last year. He scored six centuries in total against an in-form Judd Trump and Mark Allen before being defeated by Ronnie in a high-quality semi-final, where three centuries and seven half-centuries were scored. Thankfully for Marco, he missed the German Masters after failing to defend his Scottish Masters title so like Ronnie, will have plenty of time to practice. But this is a good time to see Ronnie – the Rocket seems to make more mistakes in the opening round of past Masters editions before getting his rhythm. Don’t forget, Ronnie could’ve been knocked out at that stage last year had Liang Wenbo not missed the black.
So what will happen here? I think Ronnie should succeed here, based on how far apart these players are this season in terms of form. The scoreline, however:
Winner: Ronnie O’Sullivan vs. Marco Fu (6-3)
Mark Allen (8) vs. Luca Brecel (11)
The pair has met three times before, the last time being the 2015 Shanghai Masters. Allen won all of them. Based on this alone, it’s obvious isn’t it? Well, considering Luca had whitewashed Trump, who he hadn’t beaten before earlier this season, that logic is thrown out of the window. The Belgian Bullet is a completely different animal now.
Luca Brecel is finally reaching the potential we all knew he could muster and it was worth the wait. After winning the China Championship by beating the likes of Marco Fu, O’Sullivan and finally Shaun Murphy, he also reached two further semi-finals and a quarter-final. Now, he is making his debut and he’s at the stage of his career where he is completely fearless. This is probably the most interesting tie of the lot.
Allen is on good form, having reached the final of the International Championship, coming through bruises against Judd Trump and refused to be complacent to beat Yan Bingtao in the semi-finals. Problem with Allen is that good form and being the bridesmaid is never enough for him as he only aims at the top but it hasn’t come yet. He does have a good record on his side though – he hasn’t lost a Masters first round tie since 2014 and beat John Higgins twice and Shaun Murphy. I think this will go down to the wire and I believe from experience and in general – Allen has the bottle to beat Brecel.
Winner: Mark Allen vs. Luca Brecel (6-5)
John Higgins (5) vs. Anthony McGill (14)
I swear to god there is always a Tartan Tussle or a Dragon Donnybrook somewhere, where two Scots or two Welsh players are bound to be playing against each other in the Masters or the World Championship. Still, we have the Tartan Tussle, in some ways an even more special occasion for the debutant Anthony McGill.
Both men have beaten each other in the past and both on very special occasions. McGill first broke into the limelight by beating Higgins in the 2014 UK Championship. Since then, he has won two ranking titles (or one ranking title, depending on if you are a die-hard purist or not). This season started brilliantly for him – three quarter-finals, one semi-final and an Indian Open final. However, since the English Open, he hasn’t even gone past the third round yet and it’ll be very interesting why there’s a sudden dip in form.
Higgins actually beat McGill to win the Indian Open title earlier this year and whitewashed in their recent meeting in the Champion of Champions 4-0. The only times he lost in the big occasions this seasons where when he got completely outplayed – by Ronnie a few times bar one and Neil Robertson in the Scottish Open. Higgins also reached the Shanghai Masters semi-finals and the International Championship quarter-finals. I will go with the Wizard of Whishaw here based on more experience at Alexandra Palace and I cannot see Anthony McGill outplaying him here.
Winner: John Higgins vs. Anthony McGill (6-1)
Ding Junhui (4) vs. Ryan Day (15)
Ding has an appalling record in the Masters. He only broke his 5-year streak of not winning a match at the Masters last year by beating debutant Kyren Wilson 6-3 before losing in a one-sided affair against Joe Perry the next round. Ding is cast as a frustrated figure as Stephen Hendry pointed out that he didn’t seem to care during the Champion of Champions while on the other hand, a recent eye infection and the sad passing of his mother last year may have contributed to his loss of form. You may argue that was the cause of surprising losses such as to Leo Fernandez in the UK Championship, despite being 5-1 up. He did win the World Open by thrashing Kyren Wilson 10-3, so there is clearly a spark up his rear end – we just don’t know now which Ding will turn up.
For Ryan Day, this is probably the best draw he could’ve hoped for. His first ranking win in the Riga Masters by beating Barry Hawkins, Joe Perry, Kyren Wilson, Mark Williams and Stephen Maguire; consistent performances; and his semi-final appearance in the UK Championship put him on the deserving list of elites. This will be his 5th appearance here and has only reached the quarter-finals once. His long potting is as good as anyone’s and he has recently stopped choking when holding a huge lead, which held him back over the years and led him to so many agonising losses.
For fans who like entertainment, this is the perfect match-up. Ding may have the slightly better H2H record but the last four full-ranking event meetings have been deciders – 2015 International Championship, 2015 Shanghai Masters, 2015 German Masters and 2014 German Masters. Not sure why they play against each other to the wire so regularly – perhaps they match each other’s game so well. I still believe it will be close – but it will all depend of Ryan Day and coping with his resurgence.
Winner: Ding Junhui vs. Ryan Day (6-4)
Judd Trump (3) vs. Liang Wenbo (16)
Liang also hasn’t had a good season and could count his lucky stars he’s in the Masters at all. Having not even reached the Last 16 stage at any ranking tournament this season, he seems to have lost his way big time. Even in the UK Championship he lost to Stephen Maguire in the Last 32 and had Maguire beaten Ronnie O’Sullivan, he wouldn’t be playing Judd Trump. Even in his poor form, he got the right draw – he is Judd’s bogeyman. He beat him in the 2015 UK Championships; beat him in the 2016 English Open final and almost beat him in the 2016 World Championships before throwing away a 7-3 lead.
Judd Trump had good results so far but by his own admission, has played inconsistently and his worst in five years. Despite this, he defended his European Masters title, he reached the Shanghai Masters final but ended up being outclassed by O’Sullivan. You could argue that the Scottish Masters was a missed opportunity since he was defeated by Cao Yupeng in the semi-finals and said he wanted to forget about it as soon as possible. I bet he wanted someone out of form in the draw and he got one too. So this should be an unpredictable match – just depends on who can recover the most from the Xmas break.
Trump’s Masters record is best described as ‘haphazard.’ Though in his Masters career he has reached the semi-finals twice, he’s been knocked out in the first round three times in the past four seasons. This can go either way for me, but I trust Trump to do this. He just needs to be more mature and is more capable of returning to top form than Liang is.
Winner: Judd Trump vs. Liang Wenbo (6-3)
Shaun Murphy (6) vs. Ali Carter (12)
Murphy is having a brilliant season, but it could’ve been so much better. He’s reached three ranking finals and lost all of them: the China Championship, the Paul Hunter Classic and the UK Championship. However, he has won a very prestigous Champion of Champions title against Ronnie O’Sullivan, withstanding a comback from 9-5 to 9-8 before clearing up the remaining colours. Along with Ronnie, he currently holds the mantle of the best in-form players at the moment and wouldn’t surprise me if another silver trinket comes his way.
Ali Carter’s season has been relatively quiet by his standards. His best results so far are reaching the China Championship semi-finals (where he was beaten by Murphy 6-4) and reached the quarter-finals of the International Championship (who beat Murphy 6-2 along the way). Interestingly, he has the better H2H record, with 16 wins against Murphy’s 11 in all competitions and has won four out of their last five minor ranking/ranking meetings, including one of the more memorable BO7 matches in the final of the Paul Hunter Classic, which Carter won 4-3.
This is probably the most even tie in the Masters and it’s between the man who’s playing better verses the one with the better record. I think I will go with Murphy – not only because of form but also because of his past record in the Masters. Even though he did lose in the first round last year, he won it recently and with Trump/Liang waiting in the next round, he will want to take advantage of that.
Winner: Shaun Murphy vs. Ali Carter (6-4)
Barry Hawkins (7) vs. Kyren Wilson (13)
Barry Hawkins is struggling big time. Since his World Championship heroics in 2012 and 2013 he admitted he has become frustrated with the game. He is one of the best all-rounders and someone not to suffer a loss against a lower-ranked player, yet he has been beaten by Chris Wakelin, Ken Doherty and Chen Zifan. Despite playing well in the UK Championships, he was whitewashed by Sunny Akani 6-0, which he described as among the worst performances in a match of his career and later said he needed to go back to the drawing board.. Thankfully for him, his recent record at the Masters of a semi-final and a final appearance in the past two edition should give him a kick up the backside.
Kyren will make his second appearance in the Dafabet Masters, having lost to Ding Junhui in the first round 6-3 last year. He has reached two finals in the World Open and the English Open, but he was trashed by Ding 10-3 and Ronnie 9-2 respectively. You’d think that if Kyren needs to be a golbal phenomenon in the sport, he needs to start winning trophies now. Trump and Ding are getting closer to their goals and it won’t be long before the young Chinese brigade soon start their possible domination. Kyren is not invincible either. He has lost in the first round four times this season, most recently in the German Masters.
They have met ten times and Barry has won seven of them. However, these matches are BO7s, Championship League matches and one Shoot-Out, meaning this will be the longest match together. I cannot see this being a close match, but if I had to choose a winner here, it will be Kyren.
Winner: Barry Hawkins vs. Kyren Wilson (2-6)
Mark Selby (2) vs. Mark Williams (10)
You have to feel sorry for Mark Williams. Since he returned to the fixtures list of the Masters, he’s had Ronnie O’Sullivan and Mark Selby and lost to both on deciders in the first round. He’s having the best season in a few years and he gets drawn against Selby again. Draws are cruel.
Mark Williams is in very decent fettle indeed, despite wondering how on earth he is still in the Top 16 in the first place. He has won two titles so far – the Sangsom Six-Red World Championships by beating former winner Thepchaiya Un-Nooh 8-2 in the final and finally bagged his first ranking title since the 2011 German Masters to win the Northern Ireland Open. It was a relief to the game as well to Mark Williams himself, who admitted he had thought about quitting last year and Stephen Hendry suggested he should a few years prior. Having not lost a first round match this season, it wouldn’t surprise me if he was the man the top seeds would rather not play against.
Mark Selby has been fairly relaxed this season. Let’s be honest, why wouldn’t you – you are hundreds and thousands of pounds away from everyone else to such an extent that he could take the entire year off and would still be No. 1! This has come at a price though – he suffered a number of off-colour performances, including a laboured win against lowest seed Basem Elttahan in the UK Championship followed by a surprise loss against Scott Donaldson, who at the time won only one match in the entire season. Despite not playing particularly well, his B-game is always the best, as he won the International Championship by beating Mark Allen, so a trophy already to his name will give him confidence.
We’ve seen many great battles between the two and this is one of the matches I am looking forward to the most. To make things even more tense, the H2H record is a tie berween them – both player have won fifteen times against each other in all competitions. Though Williams won on their recent meeting in the International Championship, Selby has won the previous three ranking matches. Weirdly, I think I will back The Welsh Potting Machine here. Selby may have a great record in the Masters, but he only reached the quarter-finals last year. In both of the last Masters losses, Williams performed well in both of them. That’s why I’m backing him – since he won a few more trophies, he will definitely think he is in more of a chance of claiming more silverware!
Winner: Mark Selby vs. Mark Williams (5-6)
The Dafabet Masters will commence on Sunday 14th January 2018. The first match will be between Mark Selby vs. Mark Williams at 13:00 GMT.
