Thirty-two players have reached the final obstacle to reach snooker’s Theatre of Dreams. But only sixteen players can proceed to the Crucible. Wonderfully, these matches are now BO19. This is when you know snooker means business. I hope when this pandemic is over and we can act normally, all of these qualifiers will revert to BO19 matches.
I made my #Crucible16 predictions before the tournament. Out of my predictions so far, eleven out of sixteen players are in the final round. But all of my predictions could fall at the final hurdle for all we know.
Onto more important things, here is my preview of every single match in the final round. That also includes my original prediction before the tournament started. Seedings are correct to the world rankings after the 2021 Tour Championship, according to World Snooker Tour.
Matches from Group 1-8 will be played on Tuesday 11:00 & 17:00 GMT. Matches from Group 9-16 will be played on Wednesday 11:00 & 17:00 GMT.
Live coverage will be provided via the WST Facebook and YouTube channels in addition to the Eurosport Player. All the details can be found by clicking here.
DRAW
Group 1: Zhou Yuelong (17) vs. Liam Highfield (49)
Zhou Yuelong is one of the most improved players this season. Building from his two ranking final appearances last season, he reached the UK Championship semi-finals and the English Open quarter-finals this season. John Higgins said of Zhou this season, “He’s got a great temperament and all-round game, and he’ll be here for years to come.” Zhou beat Xu Si 6-5 in a thrilling Round 3 match that featured 10 +50 breaks and both players playing positively and extremely well.
Liam Highfield reached the third round of three ranking events this season but has done well enough to stay in the Top 64. He fought off a fightback from Elliot Slessor, who qualified for the Crucible last year, to win 6-5. He scored three +50 breaks and a 132. Highfield has met Zhou just once, losing 10-5 in the 2019 World Championship. Considering how well Zhou played, I think he will win, but it will be closer than people think.
Original Winner: Zhou Yuelong vs. Elliot Slessor
Current Prediction: Zhou Yuelong vs. Liam Highfield
Group 2: Matthew Selt (32) vs. Scott Donaldson (33)
Both players had similar seasons. They gained similar ranking points, though Matt Selt won slightly more than Scott Donaldson, thanks to his semi-final appearance at the 2021 Gibraltar Open. But both players have come from behind to win their Round 3 matches. Donaldson came from 5-4 behind to force the decider and beat an in-form Dominic Dale. Remarkably, Selt beat Nigel Bond 6-5, despite being 5-2 down with a point of no return. It’s quite impressive.
Both players are overdue a World Championship place. Selt’s second and most recent appearance at the Crucible was in 2015, while Donaldson’s debut was two years ago. Donaldson has beaten Selt in all six meetings, though four of their most recent meetings were BO5 matches. On current and season form, I would go with Selt, also because Donaldson seems to struggle on the final qualifying round of the World Championship.
Original Winner: Matt Selt vs. Dominic Dale
Current Prediction: Matt Selt vs. Scott Donaldson
Group 3: Robert Milkins (40) vs. Kurt Maflin (25)
Robert Milkins is playing better, which is good to see because he is really good to watch. He proved that against Joe O’Connor who won that match 6-5. Milkins is great when he plays his natural instinctive style and if you watch him clearing the colours from 5-4 behind, you will see why!
I don’t know anyone who gave Kurt Maflin a chance of qualifying for the Crucible this year. He was largely absent in the second half of the seasons for goodness knows what. He played poorly in the Championship League, clinching just six frames without winning a match. But he got his scoring boots back on in the qualifiers, scoring one +50 break and three centuries to beat 6-4 versus Jak Jones. Maflin will be hoping for an immediate return to the Crucible this year.
Their H2H is neck and neck at 3-3. However, Milkins had beaten Maflin in the World qualifiers before, defeating the Norwegian 10-7 in 2016. I reckon Milkins to win again at this stage.
Original Winner: Robert Milkins vs. Jak Jones
Current Prediction: Robert Milkins vs. Kurt Maflin
Group 4: Lyu Haotian (56) vs. Chang Bingyu (75)
Lyu Haotian has gone missing this season. Since his impressive run to the Last 16 of the 2018 World Championship, he reached two ranking semis and is a 2019 Indian Open finalist. But all that good work has been erased and saw Lyu sliding down the rankings. Though he scrapped through Gao Yang 6-5, he received a bye in Round 3 because Noppon Saengkham had a positive COVID-19 test.
Chang Bingyu is responsible for one of the biggest shocks in these qualifying rounds so far. After pushing amateur Julien Leclercq aside 6-2, he came up against Tom Ford. While Ford tortured himself and bemoaning his bad luck that match, Chang gone about his business impressively. Chang scored three centuries in total, including two from 4-3 down.
This pair played each other just once in their professional careers, with Lyu winning 4-2 in the 2020 Gibraltar Open. It’s easy to forget that Lyu qualified for the Crucible once before in 2018 and I think he could qualify again here.
Original Winner: Noppon Saengkham vs. Tom Ford
Current Prediction: Lyu Haotian vs. Chang Bingyu
Group 5: Graeme Dott (21) vs. Tian Pengfei (53)
Graeme Dott admitted in his post-match interview after beating Eden Sharav 6-3 that he didn’t play well. He figured that he tried too hard because he didn’t want to miss out on qualification this time around. Dott has enough experience of successfully qualifying to the Crucible, though he was unlucky to lose to a rejuvenated Martin Gould in the final round last year.
Tian Pengfei proved to be a banana skin as he dispatched higher-ranked opponent Sunny Akani 6-4. He is having a very quiet season so far, but he is unpredictable. In fact, both Tian and Dott are having relatively mediocre seasons. But their H2H record is stark – Dott is winning 4-0 but their last two matches have gone to deciders. I will stick with Dott on this one.
Original Winner: Graeme Dott vs. Sunny Akani
Current Prediction: Graeme Dott vs. Tian Pengfei
Group 6: Jamie Jones (69) vs. Li Hang (37)
Considering the manner of how Jamie Jones dropped off the tour, his season has been remarkable. Jones is No. 22 on the One-Year Ranking List and reached the Northern Open semi-finals. As he is in the first year of his two-year card, he doesn’t have any relegation worries. Jones has a pedigree in this tournament, qualifying three times and reaching the quarter-finals in 2012.
Li Hang played well to beat Matt Selt, Stuart Bingham and Judd Trump along the way to reaching the semi-finals of the 2020 Scottish Open. Other than his Last 32 appearance in the UK Championship, this is his only highlight this season. Both players were very convincing in their third-round victories. Jones and Li beat Michael Holt and Andrew Higginson respectively.
It’s hard to take their H2H too seriously here. Li is winning 2-0, but their last meeting was in the 2009 Welsh Open. This is a very long time ago I think you would agree. I do think on current form that Jones will win this tie, but it should be quite close.
Original Winner: Jamie Jones vs. Andrew Higginson
Current Prediction: Jamie Jones vs. Li Hang
Group 7: Lu Ning (36) vs. Liang Wenbo (29)
Lu Ning is a lucky boy in his previous tie. He failed to kill the match off after he led Jimmy Robertson 5-1 and was pegged back to 5-5. If their match hadn’t been pulled off to make way for the evening matches., one could argue that Robertson had the greater momentum to beat Lu. But Lu ended up winning that decider.
Liang has given a rough ride from Rod Lawler. Liang surrendered a 4-0 lead to just 4-3 ahead, before finishing the match off. Lu Ning is playing well this season, while Liang has been rather patchy. Surprisingly, Lu has not reached the main stage yet, while Liang qualified seven times. Do I go with experience or form? Well, since my pick was Lu Ning at the start, I will be stubborn enough to stick with him.
Original Winner: Lu Ning vs. Liang Wenbo
Current Prediction: Lu Ning vs. Liang Wenbo
Group 8: Mark Davis (45) vs. Jamie Clarke (86)
Mark Davis are very dependable and held off the challenge from Stuart Carrington by winning 6-4. Davis has reached the Crucible stages eleven times throughout his long snooker career. But his opponent is not the favourite Joe Perry, but a young and incredibly tenacious Jamie Clarke.
Clarke’s talent is better than his ranking. He had a wonderful run to the Last 16 last year, beating Mark Allen and then losing to Anthony McGill in a decider of a fiery match. He had a tough game about Iulian Boiko and triumphed against Jamie O’Neill from 5-0 down to win 6-5. His 6-2 victory over Joe Perry was also very impressive. There isn’t much to go on in the H2H as there was just one meeting between these two. Mark Davis won that tie 4-3 in the 2018 Scottish Open against Jamie Clarke
This is a tricky one. My head says Clarke but my head says Davis. I will go with my head on this one.
Original Winner: Mark Davis vs. Joe Perry
Current Prediction: Mark Davis vs. Jamie Clarke
Group 9: Igor Figueiredo (85) vs. Mark Joyce (46)
Neither of these players has qualified for the Crucible before. This means it is guaranteed that someone will be making their debut in this year’s World Championships. Mark Joyce is comfortably in the Top 64 and Igor Figueiredo guaranteed his tour card under the One-Year Ranking rule, should he miss out on the Top 64.
Igor has been a pro for a long time, albeit in three separate stints. He equalled his best run in his career this season by beating Graeme Dott, Sunny Akani and Zhao Jianbo to reach the 2020 Northern Ireland Open Last 16. Igor made it to the final qualifying round once before, losing to Robin Hull 10-4. The Brazilian beat close friend Thepchaiya Un-Nooh 6-5, while making two vital breaks under pressure in the last two frames. If you want to read an article about Igor Figueiredo, please click here.
Joyce has been a ‘steady eddy’ for a while. The 2019 Riga Masters finalist has reached the third round in the 2020 Scottish Open and that’s just about it. He proceeded to the final round by beating Anthony Hamilton 6-4. This pair haven’t met in a professional match. I want to see Igor become the first player from South America to reach the Crucible.
Original Winner: Thepchaiya Un-Nooh vs. Mark Joyce
Current Prediction: Igor Figueiredo vs. Mark Joyce
Group 10: Ryan Day (30) vs. Ricky Walden (35)
This would’ve been a tie we would see in the first round of the Crucible a few years ago!
Both players had long periods of poor form. Ricky Walden was recovering from his back injuries while Ryan Day had cue problems and a loss of confidence. Day and Walden were Crucible staples but they failed to qualify for the last two seasons. Now that these players are one match away from the Crucible. Day defeated Louis Heathcote in a decider of a highly entertaining match, while Walden comfortably dispatched Peter Lines 6-1.
Day may be the highest-seeded player, but that was helped by his 2021 Snooker Shoot-Out victory. He hadn’t gone beyond the Last 32 of a ranking event in almost two years before lifting the third ranking title of his career. Walden is slowly returning to form reaching two quarter-finals in the last two seasons, most recently 2020 Scottish Open quarter-finals. Their H2H is neck and neck too at 7-7, including the Championship League matches. Looking at these two players at the moment, I will choose Walden to be the winner.
Original Winner: Ryan Day vs. Ricky Walden
Current Prediction: Ryan Day vs. Ricky Walden
Group 11: Bai Langning (117) vs. Martin Gould (27)
How does one prepare for a snooker player who hasn’t played this season until this tournament? Bai Langning’s emergence is something no one saw coming. The 18 year-old only recorded two professional wins last season, which were against Jimmy White and James Cahill. I don’t know why he hasn’t played this season, though the fear of travel during the pandemic would be a decent guess. But Bai has done very well to beat Allan Taylor (6-3), Alan McManus (6-3) and Ben Woollaston (6-5) to reach the final qualifying round of the World Championship.
This time last year, Martin Gould was thinking about retirement from the game. Now, he has a chance to qualify for the Crucible for the third time running. He has been at the Crucible ten times in the past twelve seasons as both a qualifier and an automatic seed. This season he made the World Grand Prix quarter-final and the European Masters final.
It will be a test for Gould to play a complete unknown. It will also be a test for Bai. Bai can only win a fresh two-year card for next season if he qualifies for the Crucible. That has got to be pressurising. As well as Gould’s experience and record, I think this final round will be a step too far for Bai.
Original Winner: Allan Taylor vs. Martin Gould
Current Prediction: Bai Langning vs. Martin Gould
Group 12: Steven Hallworth (109) vs. Gary Wilson (22)
Steven Hallworth is a surprise package. He returned to the tour via Q School at the start of this season after his first stint between 2014-2016. His greatest feat was reaching the Last 32 of the English Open this season. That was until this tournament. He has beaten amateur Dean Young, David Grace and 2021 Welsh Open winner Jordan Brown to reach the final qualifying stage.
Gary Wilson is having a season way below his calibre. He confessed that he was suffering badly this season and bravely opened up on his battle with depression. Bar one Last 16 appearance in the English Open, he failed to make it past the second round in the other tournaments. But his victory over Gerard Greene should give him a lift. One highlight was getting a snooker back and potting the final black to go 5-4 ahead, which completely turned the tables in that match. I think Gary will carry on that form to this final round.
Original Winner: Jordan Brown vs. Gary Wilson
Current Prediction: Steven Hallworth vs. Gary Wilson
Group 13: Ali Carter (23) vs. Alexander Ursenbacher (55)
Ali Carter has been performing well all season, much better compared to last year. He reached the Northern Ireland Open semi-finals, the Welsh Open quarter-finals and the final groups of the WSF Pro Series and the Championship League. He carried on that recent form by beating 21 year-old rising star Pang Junxu 6-4.
Carter will be against Swiss Alexander Ursenbacher, who he lost to in their only meeting in the 2019 China Championship. Ursebacher took strong leads over his opponents Lukas Kleckers and Martin O’Donnell, but on both occasions he let them back into the match. This was especially the case against O’Donnell, who was 5-1 and forced a decider against Ursenbacher.
I think Carter should win this match comfortably. Carter said in past interviews how much he wants to get to the Crucible and has a more positive attitude compared to the previous season.
Original Winner: Ali Carter vs. Alexander Ursenbacher
Current Prediction: Ali Carter vs. Alexander Ursenbacher
Group 14: Zhao Xintong (26) vs. Sam Craigie (58)
This is a very tasty match featuring one hot prospect from China against the other from England.
Zhao has played enough to qualify for the World Grand Prix earlier this season. He even reached the quarter-finals of that event, beating Jamie Jones and John Higgins in the process. He held off a late fightback from Kacper Filipiak by emerging victorious at 6-3. But Craigie has gone into the World Qualifiers in great form, reaching the final group of the WST Pro Series. Craigie beat Ashley Hugill 6-3 and then whitewashed Hossein Vafaei 6-0 in the next round. We could see these two in the Top 16 in the future.
Zhao has beaten Craigie on both occasions, most recently in the 2020 European Masters where Zhao thrashed him 5-0. But Craigie has improved over the last year. I think Zhao will just edge it, but it wouldn’t surprise me if we see Craigie clinch his debut.
Original Winner: Zhao Xintong vs. Sam Craigie
Current Prediction: Zhao Xintong vs. Sam Craigie
Group 15: Chris Wakelin (63) vs. Xiao Guodong (31)
Chris Wakelin will come into this match more relaxed than usual. He saved his tour status in the Top 64 by beating Lei Peifan and Matthew Stevens in this event. The match against Lei showed his true grit, as the 2021 Gibraltar Open quarter-finalist beat Lei from 3-5 down to win 6-5.
Xiao Guodong comfortably beat Ian Burns 6-1. Like Wakelin, he also made the quarter-finals of the 2021 Gibraltar Open. Xiao is a great player but he does have a habit of throwing in a odd loss here or there. It’s weird to realise that both Wakelin and Xiao haven’t been at the Crucible since 2018. Wakelin may have the upper hand in terms of H2H (2-0 to Wakelin) but I think Xiao is a far superior play and he will win this match.
Original Winner: Matthew Stevens vs. Xiao Guodong
Current Prediction: Chris Wakelin vs. Xiao Guodong
Group 16: Luca Brecel (47) vs. Stuart Bingham (18)
Luca Brecel came through a stern test against Mark King. He was 3-1 behind at the interval and ended up winning five frames in a row to secure victory. He has nosedived down the rankings and only his WST Pro Series has kept him in the Top 48. It is weird to think he was among the Top 16 and participating in the Masters only a couple of seasons ago, given his current ranking.
Many people wondered if Stuart Bingham would feel nervous in the qualifiers. But his opponent Chen Zifan did not put him under any pressure and Bingham comfortably won 6-1. It is still surprising that the 2015 World Champion isn’t among the Top 16, but three +50 breaks and a 120 century break shows he is in good nick.
Bingham is leading Brecel 5-2 in the H2H, but all of those matches are BO7 or shorter. But I think Bingham’s performances against Chen and belief should see him through. No-one will want him in the first-round in the Crucible.
Original Winner: Luca Brecel vs. Stuart Bingham
Current Prediction: Luca Brecel vs. Stuart Bingham
