The World Championship Qualifying rounds are one of the most exciting times of the season for snooker fans. Who is going to qualify for the Crucible? Will it be a Crucible regular or a debutant? Who will survive relegation from the professional tour? Who do the pundits, commentators, bloggers and fans think will qualify for the main stages of the World Championships?
Click here for the Qualifiers draw and my talking points of this stage!
Choosing Your 16 Qualifiers
It is a tricky thing to correctly predict Crucible qualifiers. You may scroll through Cuetracker and look through every Head-to-Head permutation possible and will still get things wrong. You will become superstitious and feel like you are playing Fantasy Football again. Or maybe you seem care-free about your selections but it is all deceptive façade…
Like last year, the first three rounds of qualifying are BO11 matches, followed by the final BO19 match. Better to be safe than sorry for obvious reasons. What is different of course, is that we have almost the entire professional field this time. A large Chinese contingent including Zhou Yuelong, Xiao Guodong and Zhao Xintong chose not to participate in last year’s event due to COVID-19 safety concerns but have now returned.
But the qualifiers throws up many shocks and surprises. James Cahill became the first amateur to qualify to the Crucible in 2019, only to lose in the first round of qualifying to 15-year-old amateur Ben Mertens a year later. In 2020, none of the staple names such as Graeme Dott, Ali Carter and Joe Perry made it through to the main stage, yet five players made their debut. Who knows – the veterans may get revenge on their inexperienced counterparts?
Let’s get to it.
The Qualifying Draw
Group 1
We’ve all talked about Jimmy White vs. Stephen Hendry till we are blue in the face. It’s a dream tie, but without getting too carried away, can they qualify for the Crucible? It’s hard to see how. 2018 Rookie of the Year Xu Si is a decent player and the much-improved Zhou Yuelong are hard opponents. The BO11 format will favour the lower-ranked players but the BO19 will separate the wheat from the chaff.
On the other side, there are Liam Highfield and Elliot Slessor, both players who qualified for the Crucible once. Slessor is a player who I rate very highly, but Zhou is having a very good season and was slightly unlucky to miss out on the Top 16. Plus, Zhou had some match practice more recently in the final group of the Championship League and will more likely carry some momentum.
Winner: Zhou Yuelong vs. Elliot Slessor
Group 2
If I had to choose a player who I want to qualify, it would be Scott Donaldson. I rate him as a player because he has come on over the past few seasons. But he has gone missing this season. His group is hard. It will interest me if highly-regarded SightRight will improve Oliver Lines’s game. Even then, Dominic Dale is the sort of player who is consistent and will punish players if they are below-par.
The other side of this group is tricky too. Ken Doherty, Lee Walker and Nigel Bond can threaten Matt Selt. Selt’s season has been decent but unremarkable but I do think he is overdue a World Championship place. He won’t be under as much pressure compared to Bond, who is fighting to stay on tour, and Walker, who has won one match outside of the WST Pro Series. Selt doesn’t have any players on the form that can demolish like Kurt Maflin last year and he will prevail this time around.
Winner: Matt Selt vs. Dominic Dale
Group 3
Usually, we would look at the highest seed in the group as the favourite to go through. But Kurt Maflin has been absent in form and in person during this campaign. Even if we look at his recent performance in the Championship League, it doesn’t strike much optimism. The Norwegian won just seven frames during that group and it leaves him vulnerable to anyone with a bit of form. Barry Pinches has been there and done that, Jamie Wilson had flashes of brilliance and Jak Jones is probably the most improved player this season.
To go against Jak Jones, it will be between Joe O’Connor and Robert Milkins. O’Connor is a very good performer who is facing the jaws of leaving the tour, despite being No. 57 in the world. Milkins is playing better, which is good to see because he is really good to watch. My proposed final draw will be a chalk vs. cheese match but Milkins reached this stage a few times before and it didn’t work out. I think the BO19 will work in Jones’s favour due to his measured approach that caused numerous problems.
Winner: Robert Milkins vs. Jak Jones
Group 4
It is a shame that Noppon Saengkham didn’t carry on the form that took him to the deciding frame against Mark Selby in the Last 16 of the World Snooker Championship. He lost a number of first-round matches this season but this is the sort of event that would turn his season around. He could be against Lyu Haotian, who has gone missing this season, and Gao Yang, who has impressed in places this season.
Tom Ford has always been consistently good and it is the case here. I reckon he will have a good confidence boost from his fundraising achievements during March. Soheil Vahedi and Chang Bingyu may trouble Tom Ford but I think his experience will be an advantage. Ford qualified last year and I think he will qualify again.
Winner: Noppon Saengkham vs. Tom Ford
Group 5
The tie of this group will be between Andy Hicks and Reanne Evans. They did meet at exactly the same round in the last Worlds, with Hicks winning 6-3. But there will be more pressure on this match. Hicks will be fighting for his tour card and Evans will be wanting to impress after she received a two-year professional card last month. The advantage that both these players have is that everyone in this group is having relatively mediocre seasons. Graeme Dott is the most in-form player and yet he is only 42nd in the one-year rankings this season.
Tian Pengfei could prove to be a banana skin player and he would fancy his chances against the unorthodox Sunny Akani. However, Dott has enough experience of successfully qualifying to the Crucible, though he was unlucky to lose to a rejuvenated Martin Gould in the final round last year. Dott did beat Akani 10-2 in the 2018 qualifiers and I can see Dott being comfortable here.
Winner: Graeme Dott vs. Sunny Akani
Group 6
Rebecca Kenna has a good chance of achieving her first professional win of her career. Brandon Sargeant hasn’t done well enough to keep his tour card and Kenna could do well here. The top four seeded players in this group have all been in the Crucible. So who do I choose between Jamie Jones, Andrew Higginson, Li Hang and Michael Holt. Jones has a pedigree in this tournament, qualifying three times and reaching the quarter-finals in 2012. Holt has struggled in this qualifying event and Li hasn’t been too convincing bar one semi-final appearance this season.
I predict Jones to come up against Higginson because he has a winning record against Li. The most famous match-up between Jones and Higginson in the 2012 World Championships where Jones won 13-11. It will be another close match but I think Jones will edge it.
Winner: Jamie Jones vs. Andrew Higginson
Group 7
Not many people will be on Liang Wenbo’s side this time. Liang controversially defeated Fergal O’Brien 10-9 last time due to accusations of cheating. But he has a decent draw. Yuan Sijun has gone off the boil and I doubt he will be worried about Rod Lawler and Alex Borg. The other side of the group is very interesting.
Zhao Jianbo is a decent player but all eyes will be on the 2018 European Masters champion Jimmy Robertson. It’s surprising that he has sunk so low but he does have one more chance of redemption. If he pulls through Round 2, he will face Lu Ning, who is playing well this season. Surprisingly, Lu has not reached the main stage yet. Liang is an experienced qualifier but he can be a loose cannon every now and again. Who can forget losing 10-9 to Zhang Anda in 2015 and being whitewashed by Jamie Jones 10-0 in 2018? That’s why I’m going to Lu Ning on this one.
Winner: Lu Ning vs. Liang Wenbo
Group 8
As much as I would love to talk about the battle of the Fergals between O’Brien and Quinn, there are other fish to fry. Stuart Carrington and Mark Davis are very dependable but a lot of surprises can happen in a BO11. It is worth paying attention to Jamie Clarke, who had a wonderful run to the Last 16 last year, beating Mark Allen and then losing to Anthony McGill in a decider of a fiery match. He plays the young Ukrainian Iulian Boiko and I will be very interested to see how he will do. Hopefully, Clarke won’t follow the same fate against James Cahill as explained earlier in the article. Jamie O’Neill has impressed in patches but Joe Perry would be the next competitor.
I think the final match will be between the experienced Mark Davis and Joe Perry. Perry has a very convincing H2H record against Mark Davis and for this reason, I will plump with The Gentleman.
Winner: Mark Davis vs. Joe Perry
Group 9
This is a very continental group, where we see a Brazilian, a Pakistani, a Jamaican and a Frenchman playing each other in the first round. They don’t strike much optimism to cause a shock, though Brazilian Igor Figueiredo could spring a few surprising results. Also in the group are Anthony Hamilton, who memorably qualified last year but pulled out over safety reasons and Robbie Williams, who qualified for the Crucible three times. He would’ve loved it if they are all BO19 matches, so it will be a challenge to see if he can hack it at the BO11s.
Thepchaiya Un-Nooh has an excellent record, qualifying in the last three attempts, while he highest-ranked opponent Mark Joyce has yet to make his Crucible debut. I will still plum for Un-Nooh here!
Winner: Thepchaiya Un-Nooh vs. Mark Joyce
Group 10
This group is tricky to predict. Peter Lines, Ashley Carty, Michael White, Luo Honghao, Ryan Day and Ricky Walden have qualified for the main stages before. Mark Lloyd is an amateur invitee and Louis Heathcote reached the final qualifying round last year but lost to Alan McManus 10-5. It’s a torrid group for all and I wouldn’t even say there is an outright favourite. Indeed, Day may be the highest-seeded player, but that was helped by his 2021 Snooker Shoot-Out victory. But that would do wonders for his anxiety, as fears of dropping out of the Top 64 have disappeared.
Experience and relegation pressures could play their part here, which is why I think Day and Walden could meet in this final. Day and Walden are Crucible staples but they failed to qualify for the last two seasons. Walden hasn’t returned to his previous form since he recovered from his injuries to his lower back a few years ago. Their H2H is neck and neck too. But I think Walden will return to the Crucible for the first time since 2018.
Winner: Ryan Day vs. Ricky Walden
Group 11
It’s weird how times change. This time last year, Martin Gould was thinking about retirement from the game. Now, he is sitting pretty at No. 27 in the world. He has a very good draw. Welshmen Duane Jones and Daniel Wells had horrendous seasons and need to go deep into this tournament into order to keep their tour cards.
Allan Taylor, Bai Langning, Alan McManus and Ben Woollaston looks to be in an interesting group. Alan McManus qualified last year and Ben Woollaston hasn’t qualified since his sole appearance in 2013. Looking at this line-up, I can see Taylor making a shock here but that he will come up short against The Pinner Potter.
Winner: Allan Taylor vs. Martin Gould
Group 12
There is just one ranking event winner in this group and his name is Jordan Brown.
Since his Crucible appearance last year, he has improved leaps and bounds and famously beat defending World Champion Ronnie O’Sullivan 9-8 in the 2021 Welsh Open final. This victory as well as his success at the end of last season should be enough to intimidate anyone. But David Grace is a tough cookie. He had a strong start when he made a semi-final appearance in the Northern Ireland Open and beat Ian Burns and Ding Junhui in the UK Championship. However, his form has declined and needed to rediscover his initial form.
The other part of this group is interesting as none have shone this season. James Cahill hasn’t repeated his heroics in the 2019 World Championship and Sean Maddocks is having a tough rookie year. Gerard Greene has been anonymous and Gary Wilson was suffering badly this season and bravely opened up on his battle with depression. I would love to see Gary back at the Crucible, but I can see the Brown winning. However, this is my least confident prediction.
Winner: Jordan Brown vs. Gary Wilson
Group 13
Ali Carter destroyed his 17-season streak of appearing in the World Snooker Championships by losing to Louis Heathcote. But he is performing much better this season compared to last year, despite still being outside of the Top 16. He reached the Northern Ireland Open semi-finals, the Welsh Open quarter-finals and the final groups of the WSF Pro Series and the Championship League. Since he only played very recently, he seems to be in decent fettle.
But he has two young and talented Chinese players within his group. Si Jiahui and Pang Junxu are tough cookies, especially Pang. Pang Junxu has got to be the only contender for Rookie of the Year surely? He’s currently 33rd on the one-year ranking list, reached the 4th round three times so far and has beaten the likes of Anthony McGill, Ding Junhui, Tom Ford, Barry Hawkins, Stephen Maguire and Mark Allen! On the other side of the draw are Martin O’Donnell and last year’s qualifier Alexander Ursenbacher. If Carter passes the tough Pang, I can’t see either Ursenbacher or O’Donnell troubling him.
Winner: Ali Carter vs. Alexander Ursenbacher
Group 14
This is a very interesting group. I think Zhao Xintong, Hossein Vafaei, Sam Craigie, Jackson Page and even Aaron Hill have the potential to qualify.
Zhao and Vafaei are having the better season by far, having both qualified for the World Grand Prix earlier this season. Vafaei has been struggling to qualify from this stage throughout his professional career. I’m not sure if it is the pressure of being the first Iranian at the Crucible? I’m not sure. He is in danger if he ends up against Craigie. Craigie will feel more relaxed because his performances at the WST Pro Series has driven him away from the relegation dogfight. Even then, Aaron Hill could be a wildcard, but he needs to find the form that beat Ronnie O’Sullivan and Matthew Stevens in the European Masters this season.
It will be interesting to see how Jackson Page will react when facing possible relegation. He is one of Britain’s brightest youngsters but he has to win to stay in sight of winning a fresh card via the one-year Order of Merit rule. I cannot see him matching Zhao’s prowess but my predicted match-up between Craigie and Zhao would intrigue me. Zhao has beaten him in two occasions but Craigie has improved over the last year. I think Zhao will just edge it, but it wouldn’t surprise me if we see Craigie clinch his debut.
Winner: Zhao Xintong vs. Sam Craigie
Group 15
Amateur Ben Mertens is back after defeating James Cahill last year and pushing then-professional Sam Baird last year. But I fear he has tougher competition against Lei Peifan and Chris Wakelin before he can even take on Matthew Stevens. Stevens is a fantastic player and played at the Crucible six times within the past decade.
Usually I would go straight in with Xiao Guodong but he is vulnerable to an odd loss somewhere. Ian Burns is a good performer and Simon Lichtenberg is playing better than his first professional stint. My gut tells me that Xiao will win this one.
Winner: Matthew Stevens vs. Xiao Guodong
Group 16
Even though I’ve written about this before, I’m still surprised that Stuart Bingham is not automatically at the Crucible already. Unfortunately, Bingham’s consistency has dipped over the past couple of years. The 2015 World Championship winner and 2020 Masters champion. only reached three ranking quarter-finals in the last two seasons. Though he should qualify through his talent alone, he still has to qualify first. The worst-case scenario would be that he faces Chen Zifan (BO11) in Round 3 and Luca Brecel (BO19) in Round 4. That match with Brecel, should it happen, will be brutal. If not, Mark King would be eager to pounce on him.
Brecel has nosedived down the rankings and only his WST Pro Series has kept him in the Top 48. In fact, it was this time two years ago when he lost 10-9 to qualifier Gary Wilson in the first round of the Worlds. Mark King has been quiet over the past few seasons but he has qualified last year. Despite it all, I expect Bingham to pull through.
No-one will want him at the Crucible.
Winner: Luca Brecel vs. Stuart Bingham
Just as a reminder, the 2021 World Snooker Championship qualifiers will take place between 5th to 14th April 2021 at the English Institute of Sport in Sheffield. The coverage will be live on Eurosport.
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