Now that the qualifying draw is finally in place, everyone will start to make their #Crucible16 predictions. Which sixteen players will qualify for the World Championships? Who will save their professional career in the process? Who has the nerves to survive Judgement Day?
Before going into my pieces and ramblings, here’s the draw if you want to swot up by clicking here.
Choosing Your 16 Qualifiers
It is a very tricky thing to correctly predict Crucible qualifiers. Your mind plays tricks on you. You may scroll through Cuetracker and look through every Head-to-Head permutation possible and will still get things wrong.
It is worth being wary of making rash decisions over Crucible regulars. Joe Perry, Graeme Dott and Ali Carter are considered staples in the World Championships. But it doesn’t mean that they are guaranteed to go through. Day was the top seed last year but lost in the second qualifying round 10-3 to Chinese enigma Tian Pengfei.
Some fans want certain players to stay on tour. Others are lucky enough to be friends with some of these competitors. This leads to some bias. Everyone is guilty of this. We make predictions in the hope by selecting particular players, they will magically qualify for the Crucible. Unfortunately, it doesn’t quite work like that.
It is more difficult this year because the first three rounds of qualifying are BO11 matches. The shorter matches tend to end up with more unpredictable results, with the final round being the usual BO19. Lastly, thanks to James Cahill last year, it is definitely possible for an amateur to qualify for the Crucible.
Should you follow the betting odds? I’m afraid I don’t, since it’s not quite my cup of tea but I’m sure you know where to look for that!
The Qualifying Draw
Group 1
Joe Perry is a very consistent and solid player. Being the top seed in the qualifying rounds has its quirks. Perry will have to wait for Paul Davison and lower-ranked players Mitchell Mann and Jamie Clarke to fight it out to be his opponent. None of these should trouble The Gentleman.
Looking at the professionals on the other side of his draw, Sunny Akani and Tian Pengfei could cause Perry problems. Both players have beaten Perry in the past and as I mentioned before, Tian beat top seed last year and went on to reach the Crucible. Akani’s season is unspectacular. But the unorthodox Thai defeated Perry 10-9 in the 2017 World qualifiers.
My prediction is the tussle between Perry and Tian. Perry leads 3-2 in the H2H and says in a recent interview that he plans to use his experience to his advantage. I still believe under the current circumstances that Joe Perry will pull through but this is Tian Pengfei. Tian is unpredictable.
Winner: Joe Perry vs. Tian Pengfei
Group 2
It’s a weird group because the top two seeds in this section aren’t the best performing players. Ryan Day’s horrific season improved by reaching the Championship League final during the pandemic. Vafaei may be the leader out of the lot on the one-ranking list, but he had lost in the first round of seven tournaments and progressed past the Last 32 just once this season.
Jordan Brown is in a fortunate position to be one of the best-performing players outside of the Top 64 in line to keep his two-year card. Craig Steadman has qualified for the Crucible once before back in 2015. Amazingly, there are two more former Crucible participants in the form of Barry Pinches and Rory McLeod.
However, I am tempted to go to Vafaei here. Day is vulnerable at the moment and if he does lose to Steadman, I’m not sure if Steadman can topple the Iranian. Vafaei reached the final qualifying round twice in the last three seasons and has banged on the door for a good while now.
Winner: Hossein Vafaei vs. Ryan Day
Group 3
This is a rather open draw, as any one of the professionals could qualify here. I just hope that Peter Lines doesn’t meet his son Oliver in the final qualifying round. That would just be too horrible to contemplate.
Anyway, there are five players who played for the Crucible before. Stuart Carrington has a far superior qualifying record over Tom Ford. Carrington has qualified for the Crucible three times in the last five attempts, while Ford did it three in the last ten. But Ford has been in the better form, as he reached two ranking semi-finals this season. Luo will also be feeling the pressure as he is No. 64 in the world rankings.
However, I think Carrington will succeed. Carrington is a solid player who, looking at his results this season, barely loses to players below his ranking. Also, his qualification sways me away from Ford.
Winner: Stuart Carrington vs. Tom Ford
Group 4
I fear this group centres about the survival of former World Champion Ken Doherty. The Irishman will be determined to keep his tour card. He says that he does thrive on the pressure, tension and competitive spirit. Doherty should be okay in the second round between Fraser Patrick and Sean Maddocks but it will be Mark King who he should be worried about.
Michael Holt has a positive H2H record over Ian Burns. A quite interesting thing would be if he will face 14-year-old Iulian Boiko instead because the Ukraine is extremely highly-rated. We will be more of Boiko next season when he becomes a pro and juggling with his school studies.
The incredible thing is that Holt hasn’t beaten Doherty in all six meetings, though their last meeting was in the 2012 Snooker Shoot-Out. I still think Holt will beat Doherty this time, as Doherty isn’t on form as he used to be. Anything to get Holt away from the kitchen!
Winner: Ken Doherty vs. Michael Holt
Group 5
This is probably one of the most straightforward groups for me. The only player that stands out for me is Graeme Dott.
It’s quite weird to say this when there are three others who qualified for the World Championships before. Chris Wakelin, Martin Gould and David Grace haven’t enjoyed successful seasons. The biggest surprise is Gould, considering that he was in the Top 16 a few years ago. Also in their group, Hammad Miah could spring a few surprises and I really do hope Amine Amiri gets another professional win under his belt.
I will go for a Dott win here. The 2020 World Grand Prix finalist has been in decent nick all season. The other players weren’t flying during the Championship League either, which should benefit Dott.
Winner: Graeme Dott vs. Chris Wakelin
Group 6
At first glance, it seems obvious that Ricky Walden and Matthew Stevens would ease into this group. But for me, there could be two players that can threaten that meeting – Igor Figueiredo and Mark Joyce respectively.
Brazilian Figueiredo reached the final qualifying round in 2015 before losing to Robin Hull. He lost in the first round every year since, including against his potential opponent John Astley 10-7 in 2017. Mark Joyce’s position on the tour is under threat. Joyce has clearly got the game, but the 2019 Riga Masters finalist has never qualified for the Crucible before.
However, I will stick with my guns with this one. Stevens has risen 12 places in the ranking table, while Walden dropped 11 places. Walden hasn’t regained his best form he recovered from his back injury. Stevens is having a decent season so far so I will go with the Welshman on this one.
Winner: Matthew Stevens vs. Ricky Walden
Group 7
James Cahill became the first amateur in history to qualify for the World Championship by winning three matches. Now he’s a professional, can he do this for the second time running? It’s hard to say. He hasn’t hit the ground as much as we hoped. He has only won four matches this season and I cannot see him making another spectacular run.
I look to the likelier lads of Jak Jones, Sam Baird, Anthony McGill and Mark Davis. Jones is a more methodical player who constantly gives top players a hard time. Sam Baird has qualified for the World Championship twice but he has Dark Mavis and possibly qualifier titan Anthony McGill to contend with. Both Davis and McGill have gone missing this season, which leaves this group wide open.
There are some players who have that steel needed for the qualifiers, regardless of how their season went. Anthony McGill has that. I’m not 100% in this choice, as the four players could go through. But I will go for McGill purely on experience and mental attitude.
Winner: Anthony McGill vs. Mark Davis
Group 8
Everyone will be wanting Thepchaiya Un-Nooh to get to the Crucible. He’s fast, exciting to watch and extremely likeable. The Thai is having a fantastic season too. He reached his second ranking final of his career and made three quarter-finals. Unfortunately, that doesn’t guarantee that he will waltz to the Crucible. He’s lost to lower-ranked Ken Doherty, Peter Lines and Alexander Ursenbacher. Could Liam Highfield beat the Thai Rocket?
Amazingly, Highfield has beaten Un-Nooh in all four attempts. But that’s only if he passes Lu Ning first. Lu suffered from ‘second season syndrome’ of his initial tour card, which means he’s had a quiet time. Dominic Dale could be a dark horse into this considering his wealth of experience.
I’m still going to go for the Thai here. He has the talent to make it through this group.
Winner: Thepchaiya Un-Nooh vs. Lu Ning
Group 9
Gary Wilson is someone everyone will be willing to get to the Crucible again. The 2019 World Championship semi-finalist performed incredibly well and he’s among the best players not to win a ranking event now. He reached two quarter-finals and one semi-final and scored five centuries during his Championship League campaign.
His side of the draw is tricky. Chen Feilong impressed during the Championship League and his opponent is the very highly-rated U18 & U21 European champion Aaron Hill. Either player will meet Swiss Alexander Ursenbacher, who has showed flashes of brilliance and then completely disappears during the season. On the other side, we have Daniel Wells who hasn’t qualified for the Crucible yet and veteran Andrew Higginson. Both of whom are having very quiet seasons at the moment.
I don’t expect Wilson to lose in his section but he is vulnerable to a surprise.
Winner: Gary Wilson vs. Andrew Higginson
Group 10
I would say this is the most open group.
Starting from the first round, we have David Lilley and former prodigy Kacper Filipiak and amateurs Antoni Kowalski and Andrew Pagett. Pagett is one to watch because he has been very impressive in the amateur ranks. The Welshman, who will be a professional again after winning the Amateur European Championship, said that he is more mature and headstrong then what he was years ago.
Their opponents in the next few rounds are level pegging. Mike Dunn and Elliot Slessor are fighting to keep their card, but I feel that Slessor is more than good enough to be in the Top 64. Martin O’Donnell is one of the most improved players on tour and is the highest ranked player who hasn’t qualified for the Crucible at No. 33. But Ben Woollaston is the most in-form player there. While Slessor and Woollaston made one ranking quarter-final each, Woollaston was on fire in the Championship League, finishing second in the final group.
Woollaston has beaten Slessor 10-7 in last year’s qualifying. But I feel the shorter format and saving his tour card may benefit Slessor to bring out what he’s really capable of. For me, it is a risky punt.
Winner: Martin O’Donnell vs. Elliot Slessor
Group 11
It is weird to see someone of Michael White’s calibre fighting to stay on tour. We saw how well he can play in his Last 16 run in the 2019 UK Championship but he has suffered over the past few seasons. He has a few players in his group who have gone cold this season. Noppon Seangkham has lost more matches than won and Lyu Haotian has won and lost 18 games each this season.
Nigel Bond is a dark horse. The 54 year-old played brilliantly to make the UK Championship quarter-finals. Neither Eden Sharav and Jamie O’Neill had good enough seasons to convince me that they can challenge the four players.
As much as I want Michael White to go through, I’m not sure he could beat Noppon this time around. I will choose Noppon against Bond in an intriguing clash.
Winner: Noppon Saengkham vs. Nigel Bond
Group 12
It is a group of exciting young talent, with Jackson Page, Sam Craigie, Harvey Chandler and Scott Donaldson in the mix alongside veterans Anthony Hamilton and Andy Hicks and 12-time World Champion Reanne Evans. Evans has a good chance to get another professional scalp over Hicks, but it’s unknown as to whether the shorter format will benefit her or not.
Craigie and Chandler seriously impressed in the Championship League. They will pose a significant challenge to Hamilton and Donaldson respectively. Fan favourite Hamilton hasn’t qualified for the World Championship since 2008. Donaldson is having a fantastic season because he won the pre-lockdown Championship League, his first professional trophy. He also reached two ranking quarter-finals this season.
Donaldson and Craigie are the most in-form players there and I think they will meet in the final round. Donaldson qualified last year and he would’ve learned from his final qualifying match last year against Lu Ning. This was when Donaldson won 10-9, despite leading Lu 9-4. I believe Donaldson will win this probable match against Craigie.
Winner: Sam Craigie vs. Scott Donaldson
Group 13
Jimmy White’s fans will hope to see their idol in the World Championships for the first time since 2006. I’m sorry to say that he won’t qualify this time around. Also in the first round is hot prospect Si Jiahui. Unfortunately, I cannot see him making an immediate impact in these qualifiers.
Michael Georgiou is another ranking event winner threatened by relegation. It’s been a couple of years since his 2018 Shoot-Out victory, but he hasn’t performed consistently to stay afloat. Ashley Carty is also in danger of losing his professional status, but his Championship League performances should lift his spirits. They could face Crucible regulars Jimmy Robertson and Robert Milkins, both of whom have decent qualifying records. This is because they have qualified three times in the past five seasons.
Just due to his qualifying record, his H2H record against Milkins and that he has a positive win ratio this season, I will go for Jimmy Robertson.
Winner: Jimmy Robertson vs. Robert Milkins
Group 14
It is interesting when there is a group where none of the participants involved qualified to the Crcuible last year.
It isn’t going to be a hugely break-building group, unless Kurt Maflin can help it. His attacking game is brilliant when he’s on song, but one just doesn’t know which Kurt will turn up.
It would be fantastic to see Soheil Vahedi to get the winning spot, as unlikely it may seem. Read Phil Haigh’s interview with Vahedi here. The rest of the big guns had relatively steady seasons. Lee Walker beat Judd Trump in the English Open this season. Matt Selt reached the semi-finals of the Riga Masters. It is difficult to call this one. If Maflin is on his A-game, he will go through. If not, I think it will be Selt.
Winner: Matt Selt vs. Kurt Maflin
Group 15
This is probably the most exciting section of the lot. A potential tie between Luca Brecel and Liang Wenbo is deserving enough to be at the Crucible, let alone a qualifying match. However, there are many tough opponents to prevent that from even happening.
In the previous round, Fergal O’Brien and Alfie Burden will be fighting for their professional careers. At least in O’Brien’s case, “when you’ve heard I’ve died, you’ll know I’ve retired.” Their second round opponents should be okay for these two players, though one might need a kettle ready for a long slog between O’Brien and Rod Lawler. But I fear Brecel and Liang will be too strong for O’Brien and Burden respectively.
Weirdly, Brecel and Liang have never played against each other before. So who would win between the two? Brecel may be in the most intimidating form after his Championship League victory but he hasn’t been involved in the qualifying rounds since 2017. But I believe Brecel will be able to cope with the pressure better than Liang and should beat him in a close game.
Winner: Luca Brecel vs. Liang Wenbo
Group 16
This is quite a weird group. WSF Open winner Ashley Hugill, (yet another) Chinese superstar Wu Yize and three-time Crucible participant Robin Hull can make a good dent here. I would probably say these amateur players are better than some of the current professionals on tour.
This group is also interesting because it has both Alan McManus and Robbie Williams, both of whom had qualified on multiple occasions when the World Championship qualifiers were held in Ponds Forge. It is also weird to see McManus and Ali Carter possibly meeting in the qualifiers. Both players met at the Crucible in 2015 and 2016. McManus’s season is lukewarm while Carter has fared better. Two finals in the European Masters and the Dafabet Masters is quite impressive but he would prefer the trophy.
Carter is equal with McManus at 4-4 and Carter seems to be in better nick. Carter has been at the Crucible every season since his debut in 2003, both as a seed and as a qualifier. The streak can’t stop now, can it? I’m sure everyone wants to see him draw against Ronnie O’Sullivan!
Winner: Alan McManus vs. Ali Carter
Just as a reminder, the 2020 World Snooker Championship qualifiers will take place between 21th – 28th July at the English Institute of Sport in Sheffield. The coverage will be live on Eurosport.
If you would like to know my World Championship Qualifying Talking Points, please click here.
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Yes, of course we have to take into account what has happened (or not happened) in the last 5 months, so the 2019-20 season results are quite distant now. I also think those who have a table at home have an advantage, so players like Joe Perry and Tom Ford will probably be in good shape.
I expect the returning Asian players to struggle to acclimatise a bit more than the others: I’ve been hearing some haven’t been able to play. I desperately want Lyu to do well (this dates back to something terrible that happened in 2013…), but he’s had a lot of disruption with outbreaks and severe lockdowns near his home – it’s a miracle if he can actually participate. This gives Michael White a golden opportunity to put his career back on track – he doesn’t have to play brilliantly, just sensibly.
I’m allergic to ‘nostalgia’ and ‘hype’, so I don’t consider Doherty, Stevens, Hamilton, Bond, O’Brien and someone like Sam Craigie who is being talked about as ‘top 16 standard’ on the strength of a handful of frames in early June.
So my choices are: Perry, Day, Ford, Holt, Dott, Walden, Davis, Dale, Wilson, Woollaston, White, Donaldson, Robertson, Selt, Brecel, Carter.
There is a lot of home-advantage players – I can see it in your selections! Though I do agree that some players that aren’t based in the UK will have a more trickier time, it has helped that professionals can practice in local clubs now, albeit with some quarantine restrictions I guess.
I did think of Michael White going through but I’m not sure based on form as well as the heaps of pressure he will put upon himself to save his card. I agree with the ‘hype’ – it is very easy to get sucked in.