Everyone else seems to have published their views on the first round with a similar storyline and similar predictions. But not me. Noppon Saengkham will beat Rory McLeod in the first whitewash final. The match between Mark Selby and Fergal and O’Brien will be the first in history to carry on till dawn and Tom Ford will smile once. YOU SEE, I CAN BE DIFFERENT – HOW ABOUT YOU CAN SHOVE THAT UP YOUR…….
Now seriously, I am really looking forward to this event. The fact that this happens to be the 40th anniversary at the Crucible (which I am certain the organisers won’t milk it at all), I will be watching the evening session on the 15th April, so I will see McGill/Maguire and Selby/O’Brien (the ‘at dawn’ comment might bite me in the bum!)
The draw this year is very open indeed as based on this season’s form you can name eight different winners. This year has a wonderful range of titles as well – break-building bonanzas in Fu/Brecel and O’Sullivan/Wilson; for the purists such as Selby/O’Brien, Bingham/Ebdon and Carter/Dott; international derbies like Ding/Zhou and McGill/Maguire and a 17 year-old boy! Let’s begin, shall we?
Mark Selby (1) vs. Fergal O’Brien (45)
gf This is the worst possible outcome for the Ferginator. Not because he is against the defending champion, but because after winning the decider at 2:30am against Tian Pengfei and yet another on after winning the longest frame in snooker history at 2 hours 3 minutes (which is the longer than The Longest Yard with Adam Sandler – I’m not sure which is worse!), he will be knackered for this. Mark Selby is of course in fine form straight after winning the China Open but whether he is clinical enough to wipe Fergal off the table, or like David Gilbert will he give Fergal enough time to grind throughout the match? I think this is a good draw for Mark and he will want this out of the way.
Prediction: Selby 10-6
Ryan Day (16) vs. Xiao Guodong (44)
When people search for a shock, they immediately go to the lowest seed of the tournament. Day earnt his place through consistency and grit, though he was just two frames away from Mar Williams nicking his place from him. He faces a late resurgence from Xiao who, despite having an average season, dropped only 10 frames in three qualifying matches, thrashing favourite Mark King in the process. Day would have plenty of time preparing for this match since he was knocked out in the qualifying rounds of the China Open, so he had plenty of practice. Outside Shoot-Out matches, they met only once, with Day winning 5-2 at the 2014 German Masters. Most punters are going with Xiao here, but I can see Day winning here – his WC form is very good!
Prediction: Day 10-8
Neil Robertson (9) vs. Noppon Saengkham (72)
Noppon will play like he has nothing to lose now. Due to slogging out wins against German Masters Anthony Hamilton and Lee Walker, the lowest-ranked player of the event and lone Thai has cemented his place in the Top 64 and will be safe in the knowledge that he keeps his points for next season. He has beaten Neil before in the 2015 China Open and has beaten the likes of Maguire, Dott and Woollaston before. But Neil took China Open off so he can focus on this event. His record has been inconsistent from thrashings of Robbie Williams and Jamie Jones 10-2 WC, to losing 10-6 to Michael Holt. The main problem from the fromer Asian U21 champion is that he finds it hard to cope with over-powered players like Neil, since he suffered huge losses from Trump and Un-Nooh, so I fear it will be the same tonight.
Prediction: Robertson 10-2
Marco Fu (8) vs. Luca Brecel (30)
It’s been 5 years since Luca qualified as a quiet 17 year-old, impressing despite losing to Stephen Maguire 10-5. Now, he has arrived again as a relatively cocky sod who expected himself to beat Dominic Dale in his final qualifying match. Now in a similar vein to Judd Trump, he has come back with more power and with a better safety game. Out of many seeds, he wouldn’t have chosen Marco Fu, who has had phenomenal flashes this season and this is the match of the round for me. Fu does have head-to-head record on his side winning all four matches, though all in best-of-7 matches. Instinct is screaming to me to go to Fu, and I cannot see this being a close one either.
Prediction: Fu 10-6
Shaun Murphy (5) vs. Yan Bingtao (63)
Everyone’s talking about this one and with good reason. Yan has a better head-to-head record over Shaun and once again there is tremendous amount of pressure on Shaun to not be beaten by a 17 year-old boy. Shaun has had a consistent season, especially since he won the Gibraltar Open. Yan had to beat talented people to come here such as mark Davis and he knows how to grind and come back after defeating Sam Craigie 10-8. This may be bold, but I can seriously see Yan making an upset here!
Prediction: Yan 10-7
Ronnie O’Sullivan (12) vs. Gary Wilson (59)
Ronnie hasn’t had a good season by his standards and let’s be honest, we do not know what to expect from him this event – he just prefers to enjoy the moment! Gary on the other hand, will be relishing this stage since he (and it is a cliché I know) that he should’ve reached this stage a long time ago with his talent. He has been very century-laden in the qualifying rounds, knocking in 7 centuries including the wonderful max and thrashing Michael White 10-3. I can see Gary giving Ronnie a fright here, until the Rocket grinds into gear and gallops home.
Prediction: O’Sullivan 10-5
Liang Wenbo (13) vs. Stuart Carrington (48)
This is bit of an odd match here. Liang has beaten Carrington on two occasions and though he hasn’t been on good form, will have time to practice before this match. This is the first time he is a seeded player in the World Championships and we have seen in the past he has a history of choking. Carrington is one of the most deadpan players on the circuit and impressed in his first appearance against Judd Trump, losing 10-6. He has risen 18 places to No. 46 as I write this, which is very decent considering his calibre – he is a very workman-like player. But I can see Liang winning big here – as long as he carries the confidence he had during the English Open.
Prediction: Liang 10-3
Ding Junhui (4) vs. Zhou Yuelong (37)
All of China will be watching this match. The most famous Asian player alive vs. the hot prospect. Zhou impressed against his decider against favourite Ben Woollaston but he is against the worst possible person to play against, suffering two heavy defeats against the former UK & Masters Champion, winning just one frame in two matches. Ding is in a confident mood coming into the tournament, especially being a finalist last season which will hopefully break his inconsistent record in the World Championships. I see a heavy win here.
Prediction: Ding 10-4
Stuart Bingham (3) vs. Peter Ebdon (42)
The match for the pure purists here. Ebdon got here in a very Ebdony way of determination – how is survived Michael Holt’s comeback is another story, as well as pulling through another decider against hotshot Jack Lisowski. He will want to make a better impression here, as he couldn’t do anything against the sizzling Marco Fu by losing 10-2, despite his awesome safety play. Bingham will want a resurgent performance here. Having fallen to the Crucible Curse by losing the opening round against Ali Carter. But now he doesn’t have the pressures of being the defending champ, as well as winning his first ranking title since his 2015 triumph. They have met before here, with Bingham winning 10-8 against seeded Ebdon, and I can only see the same scoreline here.
Prediction: Bingham 10-8
Kyren Wilson (14) vs. David Grace (51)
Neither having great seasons, Kyren Wilson has shown that he is a Top 16 player by staying consistent and building on his 2015 Shanghai Masters triumph by reaching the Indian Open final this season. Being the first time he is the seeded player, he will be quite relieved to be drawn one of the five debutants, especially David Grace. Though Grace thumped Akani Songsermsawad (or ‘Sunny’ to less fun people), he didn’t do it convincingly or with big breaks, with only three +50 breaks that match. But, since his semi-final UK Championship appearance in 2015, Grace has improved in many ways in terms of weight and performance! With two quarter-finals to his name, he will reach his highest ranking position of No. 42 to date. However, I can see Grace being intimitated by the ocassion he is clearly very excited about, and Wilson will win.
Prediction: Wilson 10-4
Mark Allen (11) vs. Jimmy Robertson (39)
Jimmy Robertson is an underachiever, a good all-round player but never seems to get one over the top boys. Apart from reaching the Last 16 of the Riga Masters, he hasn’t really done much – it’s been pretty average. In this tournament, he has made 13 breaks to beat youngsters Cao Yupeng and Oliver Lines and finally held himself together against Rod Lawler. He has actually got a good draw against Mark Allen, since he has had a very average record in the World Championships. Allen, like Neil Robertson, skipped the China Open simply for more time to prepare for this. However, I think this is a good opportunity for Jimmy to win for the first time here, I really do.
Prediction: Robertson 10-8
John Higgins (6) vs. Martin Gould (18)
To me, this will be a decider. Question is to who? Higgins has had flashes of brilliance this season, with the China Championship, Champion of Champions and being the finalist of the Scottish Open but since then has been fairly quiet here, apart from the Champions League. Though Gould is of a similar pattern, Gould has had a decent season. He is No. 27 in the one-year rankings and reaching the semi-finals (German Masters) and quarter-finals (Champion of Championship). Excluding Champions League matches, Higgins wins over Gould 2-1, but in very close matches, including the deicder in the final of the 2014 Australian Goldfields Open. I do think Gould will win here, as he has the confidence out of all the qualifiers to take on anyone, and Higgins’s recent record is weak.
Prediction: Gould 10-9
Barry Hawkins (7) vs. Tom Ford (32)
I still never understand Tom Ford. Very good player and a banana skin of the qualifiers to be drawn against and did well to weather to storm to win against Iranian Hossein Vafaei. He seems to perform better against higher-ranked players rather than lower-ranked ones and hopefully he will look as if he is enjoying himself for once. Problem is, he is drawn with one of the best Crucible specialists in Barry Hawkins, who reached a final, two semi-finals and a quarter-final in the past four years. However, though Barry is winning on total head-to-head record, Tom has won two in the past three meetings. However, in current form, I beleive Hawkins is too strong.
Prediction: Hawkins 10-4
Ali Carter (10) vs. Graeme Dott (29)
Another one for the purists! This is the match that can definitely go either way and I wouldn’t be too surprised if I get this one wrong. Dott’s specialism is best-of-19s but on form, he’s been woeful, not even reaching a quarter-final this season. Carter achieved his long-term goal to get back into the Top 16 after his cancer troubles, helped by his World Open win and since then has got good results, with a semi-final appearance standing out. Out of recent experience with big matches and in the decider, I will go with Carter with this one, as Dott just hasn’t been in big matches recently, despite a superior head-to-head record and beating him in 2011 13-11.
Prediction: Carter 10-9
Anthony McGill (15) vs. Stephen Maguire (24)
Fourth Scottish tie in the World Championships in a row. The third in a row Maguire is involved in. Stephen simply accepted that he will qualify and that he wasn’t as good as he was and in some way that got him through to a semi-final and two quarter-finals this season and got through the qualifying rounds relatively easily. It is his road to redemption, and who better to face than the younger pretender who knocked him out in 2015? McGill has been relatively quiet this season bar the Indian Open and the Shoot-Out, but take into account that last season was quiet for him, yet he beat Shaun Murphy 10-8. I fancy Maguire going for this one. At least this time, he is not in a downward spiral.
Prediction: Maguire 10-7
Judd Trump (2) vs. Rory McLeod (54)
This is a kind tie for Judd Trump – he will want someone who he beat on a regualr basis and doesn’t share the same firepower as he does. The main problem with Judd is that he storms through and them lets his opponents in before he crosses the line. This happened in past WC matches against Dominic Dale and Stuart Carrington. McLeod had an easier route to the finals against all lower-ranked opposition, though still had to fight hard to win, especially when he was pegged back from 7-0 up to 7-6 up. Trump will win but it will take longer than people expect.
Prediction: Trump 10-5
