The past couple of months has been rather successful for China in the world of snooker. Their national treasure Ding Junhui beating the current World Champion Mark Selby to win the Shanghai Masters 10-6, clinching the Six-red title as well as reaching the final of the International Championship. Liang Wenbo becoming the second Chinese player to win a ranking title by winning the English Open (excluding Marco Fu for the sake of argument). Hot prospects Zhou Yuelong and Yan Bingtao reaching the Last 16 in a ranking event for the first time. Zhao Xintong impressing in a thriller against Ronnie O’Sullivan, despite being defeated in a decider. Xiao Guodong slowly coming back into form. Every wildcard warrior winning their match in the International Championship, with Xu Si going further by beating Mark Williams 6-5.
That made me go back to an article I read about Barry Hearn when discussing China’s future in the sport, such as ‘I don’t care how many Crucibles you are building in China, the World Championship is not leaving Sheffield’ and then mentioned other things about being brutal, brutal, brutal. Barry predicted that half of the world’s Top16 will be from China [1] and he reiterated:
“China will be the real dominant force in the wings and I would gamble on them producing ten to 16 players in the top 32 in five years’ time.”[2]
Tournaments aside, China rise in snooker has been nothing short of remarkable. After Ding’s prolific record before turning professional, he won his first titles (China Open and the UK Championship) at 18 years-old and went on to win 12 ranking titles in total. He was involved in the first Asian final in the 2011 Masters against Marco Fu and the first Chinese ranking event final against Xiao Guodong in the 2013 Shanghai Masters. Five Asian players competed in the first round of the 2012 World Championships – a Crucible record. So it is no surprise that snooker ended up being in curriculums of Chinese schools, millions of Chinese fans watched this year’s World Championship and, as of last year, an estimate of 60 million “regular players” in China, showing huge strength in depth. [3]
Many great players would have retired in the next 5-10 years (Williams, O’Sullivan, Higgins, etc.) so clearly there will be room. But who is likely to be in the Top 16 in 10 years time who is not Chinese? This ranges from established professionals such as Trump, Robertson, Kyren Wilson and prospects like Brecel, Michael White, McGill, and Un-Nooh. There are currently 17 Chinese players in the circuit (bloody hell) – so let’s see if I reckon they’ll make the Top16 soon:
- Ding Junhui: Do I really need to say it all again? Yes
- Liang Wenbo: he is the same age as Ding at 29, and is currently in the Top16. I can see him getting better and better now he won his first title. Yes
- Zhou Yuelong: I mentioned in one of my past posts that I reckon he will get his first ranking title soon. At 18 years-old, he has plenty of time to get there and to the Top16, and he is climbing fast. Yes
- Tian Pengfei – He is a player that has flashes of brilliance and then disappears again and is currently having an awful season, winning just three matches. A future Top32 player but I believe if he doesn’t sort his inconsistency out, the Top16 will be out of his reach. No
- Xiao Guodong: Slowly recovering from a torrid spell of form after his 2013 World Championship appearance and highest ranking of 19. Now at No. 56 he has a lot of catching up to do, but if he goes back to his form then maybe, but not sure. Maybe
- Li Hang: an improving player since reaching the final of Event 3 of the APTC in 2012 against Stuart Bingham. Now at No. 57 in the world, I rate him highly and think he can be a contender. Maybe
- Yu Delu: Hasn’t fulfilled his potential and is currently flirting with relegation from the tour. No
- Yan Bingtao: It is the question of when, not if he gets to the Top16. A lot of talent from his World Cup success and amateur years and is rated highly. Yes
- Zhang Yong: Not currently having a significant impact on the tour. No
- Zhang Anda: A good player that only seems to turn up in the World Championships. No
- Zhao Xintong: Early days yet, but commentators say he played like a Top8 player against O’Sullivan in the English Open. Praised and lauded by professionals alike, he has a fantastic future. Yes
- Mei Xiwen: Not currently having a significant impact on the tour. No
- Wang Yuchen: Not currently having a significant impact on the tour, but the current Asian U21 Champion needs time to grow. No
- Cao Yupeng: Was very promising until he was forced to earn his tour card again in 2015 and hasn’t shown the same form he showed in the 2012 World Championships and when he was No.42 in the world. No
- Fang Xiongman: Not currently having a significant impact on the tour. No
- Chen Zhe: Not currently having a significant impact on the tour. No
- Rouzi Miamaiti: Not currently having a significant impact on the tour. No
So that is five Chinese players I reckon will definitely make the Top16 – but what about the amateurs? There are more and more prospects churning away like Cadburys chocolate on a production line. China has been very successful in the IBSF World Snooker Championships since 2013 (there is this year’s one in the next few weeks in Doha). Probably the most likely of them to do this are Yuan Sijun, a wildcard regular who whitewashed Martin Gould twice and Xu Si recently clinched the 2016 World U21 Championships to qualify for next season. Others include Lyu Haotian, who recently dropped off tour, while Chen Zifan is another wildcard warrior and Doha competitor, who is one for the future.
So what does this very drawn out article mean? Personally, I don’t agree that half of the Top16 will be Chinese, nor 10 out of the Top32 players will be Chinese in five years. There is a lot of talent, but many forget the current crop that will still be around, and other youngsters that are just as good as the Chinese amateurs, such as Jamie Clarke, Lukas Kleckers, Mateusz Baranowski and even 14-year-old Jackson Page. But how many gems will be unearthed out of 60 million Chinese players? Only time will tell.
- [1] BBC., “Snooker: Half of top 16 will be from China – Barry Hearn.” (20th April 2016). Available from: bbc.co.uk/sport/snooker/36096472
- [2] Dudley, G., “‘The Barry Hearn touch of magic’: snooker’s preeminent promoter on China.” SportsPro. (20th September 2016). Available from: http://www.sportspromedia.com/magazine_features/the_barry_hearn_touch_of_magic
- [3] Wilson, B., “Snooker looks to cue up more big breaks in China.” BBC. Available from: bbc.co.uk/news/business-32429022
